I Googled this question probably 47 times in my first month. Every answer was some version of "it depends" followed by vague platitudes. Super helpful.
So here's what nobody would tell me: my actual timeline. Month by month, what I could and couldn't do. Real numbers.
Month 1: Chaos. Found middle C. Learned maybe 5 notes confidently. Could play one-handed melodies slowly. Tried both hands, failed miserably. Practiced 20-30 minutes most days. If you're here, my starting from zero guide will help.
Month 2: Basic chords (C, G, F, Am). Very rough "Ode to Joy" with right hand, whole-note chords underneath. Sounded bad but recognizable. Left hand still basically useless for anything complex – the left hand problem was real.
Month 3: The wall. Progress stalled. Same pieces for weeks without improvement. Got frustrated. Almost quit. Looking back: plateau. Normal. I wrote about getting through plateaus because this nearly ended my journey.
Month 4: Breakthrough. "Lean on Me" simplified, start to finish, both hands, no stops. First time I felt like I could actually play. Emotional moment.
Month 5: Started reading music properly (should've done earlier). Added 2 more songs. Starting to understand chord progressions – understanding how chords work made everything click differently.
Month 6: 4-5 songs reasonably well. Attempted "River Flows in You" simplified. Hard. Really hard.
Months 7-9: Steady improvement. Each new song took less time. Recognizing patterns. Theory started making sense. Glad I finally learned the basics.
Months 10-12: Could learn new beginner-intermediate song in about 2 weeks. Maybe 8-10 songs I could play confidently. Felt "competent" for first time.
The numbers if you practice 30 minutes daily: 3-6 months to play recognizable songs. If you practice 15-20 minutes daily: 6-12 months. If you practice a few times a week: 12-18 months.
Key word: daily. 15 minutes every day beats 2 hours twice a week. This is why I developed the 10-minute rule – it saved my practice habit.
You will hit plateaus. Multiple. Push through by switching what you practice, taking short breaks, getting outside feedback.
The question behind the question is usually: "Is it worth starting?" Yes. Timeline matters less than starting. Start today.
For the full roadmap, my complete beginner's guide breaks down everything in detail.